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Online Blackjack News - Splitting Tens in Blackjack
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While most blackjack experts may tell you that the best strategy when you have a pair of tens is to split them. This is sound advice, but it is also important to know why you are splitting In this same case, a player who knows what he is doing may split the cards, while a new player may split, but since he does not know what he is doing or why, then it will work to his chagrin.
Most casual players split when the dealer has a weak up card like a 5 or 6. Computer simulation tells us that when you stand on a pair of 10s against a dealer's 6 up-card, you will win 85% of the time. That's not too surprising because it's tough for the dealer to beat a strong hand of 20. If you split the 10s, the computer results show that you will win only 64% of the hand. That's a significant decrease in the number of hands won simply because if you split you will often end up with less than 20 on both hands.
Of course when you split you will be doubling your bet. Therefore to compare the expected value of splitting over standing, the question we need to answer is this, “Is it better to win $1 85% of the time or $2 64% of the time”? Let's do the quick math and find out. On one hand, when you stand, in 100 tries I expect to win one dollar 85 times and lose one dollar 15 times and thus be ahead $70 ($85-$15). This is a net expectation of 70 cents per hand. On the other hand, when you split, in 100 tries I expect to win two dollars 64% of the time and lose two dollars 36% of the time and thus be ahead $56 ($128-$72). This is a net expectation of 56 cents per hand.
Yes, you will make money if you split 10s when the dealer shows a 6 up-card to the tune of 56 cents per hand. However, you will make 14 cents more per hand on average if you stand (70 cents vs. 56 cents). This is why standing on a pair of 10s is the preferred play. If you do the same analysis for 10s against a dealer 5 you'll arrive at a gain of expectation of 16 cents per hand when you stand vs. split making standing the more profitable play.
If it's more profitable to stand on 20 rather than split, why do the pros sometimes split? The answer to this has to do with the composition of the undealt cards.The above analysis was done assuming the top-of-the-deck composition of cards. In practice the composition of the cards changes from hand to hand depending upon the cards played. The pros carefully watch the cards played so they have useful information on the composition of the undealt cards. So, if a pro sees a lot more small value cards being played compared to the 10s, picture cards, and aces, then he knows that the undealt cards must have a higher proportion of the latter cards. This will be the ideal time to split the 10s since the chances are greater of drawing two tens or aces for pat 20 or 21 hands. Also, the pro knows that if the dealer has a 5 or 6, he must draw a third card (unless he has an ace-6) and the probability is great that he will break when he draws from a ten-rich deck.
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| Source:
Blackjack2002 News Staff
| Friday, 3 August 2007 |
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