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Online Blackjack News - Blackjack Betting
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Slots typify the first situation, since the probabilities and payouts governing all possible results are inherent in the machines. Roulette and craps epitomize the second, with opportunities for aficionados to make trade-offs on a scale from high probability of small wins to long shots at large returns.
Games like blackjack differ. Chances and payoffs at the outset of a round are one element, and determine overall edge, volatility, and skewness. At this stage of a game, the uncertainty of who gets which cards is a factor. However, once a player's starting hand and dealer's upcard are known, conditions change. Some combinations favor players while others leave them at a disadvantage. Victory then is especially sweet when achieved by an underdog and defeat particularly bitter when delivered to the occupant of the catbird seat.
Blackjack players who don't know the wheat from the chaff often overestimate the prowess they're showing when winning strong starters. And, conversely, tend to become overly frustrated about the bad breaks befalling them when they lose hands that begin as bummers. Either attitude can lead to specious action.
Here's the skinny when neither the player nor the dealer has a blackjack. Players are favored regardless of the dealer's upcard when starting with totals of 10, 11, 19, and 20. Expectation is also positive with nine or 18 versus two- through eight-up, eight versus three though seven-up, and 17, seven, and four versus six-up. All other two-card totals represent uphill battles. Of the combinations, eight versus three-up, seven versus seven-up, and five versus six-up, are so marginal as to be essentially neutral.
In all, there are 170 "playable" two-card total and dealer upcard combinations: the 17 hands from four through 20 times the 10 upcards. This discounts starting with 21 and recognizes that no starting hands total two or three because at least one ace would be involved and these would be figured as 12 or 13 respectively. Of the 170, 62 are promising and the remaining 108 pernicious.
The outlook isn't as bleak as the 108-to-62 scorecard might imply. One reason is that 20 is not only especially potent, but also is the most common two-card total. It's formed by two 10-values of which there are four times as many as any other rank as well as ace-nine. To illustrate, a player should average only about three 16s for every four two-card 20s.
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| Source:
Blackjack2002 News Staff
| Thursday, 2 August 2007 |
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